Award-Winning Fantasy Football Advice

The Vikings grabbed Edge Dallas Turner with the 17th pick of the first round. Turner brings plenty of excitement as a 21-year-old early declare who delivered a 99th-percentile speed score at 6’3, 247 pounds. He also delivered 0.86 tackles for loss per game and 0.6 sacks per game for his career at Alabama. Turner lands in a Minnesota defense that just lost Edge Danielle Hunter to the Texans in free agency. That plus Turner's Round 1 draft capital -- increased by the two trades that got the Vikes in position to draft him -- makes him likely to start early in his rookie season. Expect Turner to rank high in the rookie rankings for your IDP draft.

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Texas DT Byron Murphy landed with the Seahawks at the 16th spot in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Murphy presents uncommon explosiveness and size for the position. He’s small, at 6’0.5 and 297 pounds. But Murphy also delivered 82nd-percentile or better results in the 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, vertical, and broad jump. He posted modest numbers in college, with highs of 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks in his third and final college season. But the athleticism gives him upside beyond that in the pros.

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The Colts made Edge Laiatu Latu the first defensive pick of the NFL Draft with the 15th selection of Round 1. Latu had to medically retire from football in the middle of his college career because of a neck injury but returned to close out a highly productive run. He racked up 33.5 tackles for loss and 23.5 sacks across two seasons at UCLA. Latu then delivered a 95th-percentile speed score at 6’5, 259 pounds at the Scouting Combine. He could compete for starter-level snaps as a rookie with the Colts but won’t be a lock for such a role. Indy sports Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and Dayo Odeyingbo at the position.

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The Raiders added Georgia TE Brock Bowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Bowers arrives after an uber-productive college career. He led Georgia in catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs across all three seasons on campus. Bowers tallied a 56-882-13 line as a true freshman, ranking third among 45 qualifying TEs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He improved his yards per game each of the next two seasons (62.8 and 71.4) and led all 52 qualifying TEs in yards per route last year. Bowers won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top TE in both 2022 and 2023, becoming the first two-time winner of the award. He was deployed all over the formation at Georgia (53% slot, 37% inline, 10% out wide) and even carried 19 times over the last three years. That speaks to his skills with the ball in his hands: Bowers averaged a big 8.5 yards after catch per reception for his college career. He also boasts impressive ball skills and reliable hands, dropping just 4.4% of his career targets. Bower is a bit undersized at 6’3, 243 pounds and didn’t test in the pre-draft process. But it’s tough to worry about any of that after he dominated for three seasons in the SEC. In Vegas, he joins a squad that spent a 2023 Round 2 pick on TE Michael Mayer. The Raiders lack a QB of the future but offer a nice spot for Bowers to soak up targets long-term. He remains a fringe top-5 pick in rookie drafts.

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The Broncos selected Oregon QB Bo Nix in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Nix hit the college scene as one of the top 2019 recruits. Success never arrived at Auburn, though. Across three seasons, Nix never topped 2,500 yards or 20 TDs. You can put some of the blame on an underwhelming supporting cast. Or a coaching staff that simply didn’t highlight Nix’s strengths. Here’s how ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum reacted after Nix left Auburn. “I think he has an opportunity to have a really big year somewhere, under the right coach,” Finebaum predicted. “Now, who is the right coach? Certainly, someone who can mirror his game. That was really his problem this year, he was playing in a system that really didn’t suit him.” Well, a complete 180 happened in Oregon under HC Dan Lanning. Nix exploded in 2022 with 3,589 yards, 29 TDs, and only 7 INTs. He popped with an 82.3% adjusted completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt. Nix’s numbers reached another level in 2023, as he enjoyed another campaign alongside Round 1 WR Troy Franklin. One thing to note: Nix wasn’t one to consistently push the ball downfield. 23% of his attempts at Oregon came on screens. And in 2023, his aDOT hit a shockingly low 6.8 yards. On tape, Nix looks like a polished pro whose timing, accuracy, and decision-making give him a chance to stick as a long-term starter. Landing in Denver gives Nix a good shot at starting Week 1, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson as his (meager) competition. This draft position boosts Nix as a dynasty rookie pick. Check our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

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The Vikings selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. McCarthy won 27 of 28 starts over the past two seasons, but a run-heavy Michigan squad limited the raw production. He averaged only 23.4 passes per game from 2022-2023. He hit 300 yards three times over that stretch. Of course, counting stats make up a small piece of the overall evaluation. Look to the efficiency, and McCarthy thrived – particularly in 2023. He posted an elite yards per attempt (9.0) and adjusted completion rate (80.0%). Running a pro-style system under HC Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy also excelled on throws over the middle of the field. The plus athlete showed his movement skills at the NFL Combine with a 91st percentile 3-cone (6.82) and 72nd percentile shuttle (4.23). He tallied ten rushing TDs for his career. The 6’2, 215-pounder isn’t the most physically imposing QB, but his tape doesn’t give us any arm strength concerns. And he avoided missing time due to an injury. It’s also worth remembering that this Michigan offense wasn’t loaded like the ones Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. played with. Ultimately, the selection of McCarthy is a bet on traits, athleticism, and high character. He’s certainly matched with a bright offensive mind in HC Kevin O'Connell. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson supply an excellent trio of weapons. McCarthy projects as the Week 1 starter over Sam Darnold, but it's far from a lock. The Michigan product looks no better than a low-end QB2 for redraft.

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The Falcons selected Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. It’s been a long road for Penix, whose college career began at Indiana. Unfortunately, injuries stole headlines in his four years as a Hoosier. In 2018, he missed four games with a right ACL tear. Four more games were lost the following season due to a right shoulder injury. Then in 2020, Penix retore his right ACL, costing him the last two games. Finally, a shoulder injury robbed him of seven games in 2021. It’s an exhaustive injury history for sure. But his comeback story certainly ended on a high note. Transferring to Washington in 2021, Penix excelled in an play-action based, downfield attack. He compiled 4,641-31-8 in 13 games while playing with a trio of NFL-caliber WRs: Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. He recorded nine games north of 300 yards. Come 2023, Penix became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes (2015-2016). So production/experience – along with arm strength – supply the bull case. On the flip side, it’s fair to question how Penix will perform outside of an excellent situation. That includes his blocking, as Washington’s O-line allowed only 16 sacks over the past two seasons. We also saw what happened when pressure reached Penix in the National Championship vs. Michigan. That game produced his lowest PFF passing grade (50.1) and yards per attempt (5.0) of the year. The Atlanta landing spot is a true head-scratcher. Kirk Cousins just inked a multi-year deal worth $100 million guaranteed. Perhaps he’s not ready to start come Week 1 – but there’s not a clear path to consistent playing time for Penix.

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The Bears nabbed WR Rome Odunze with the ninth pick of the NFL Draft. Odunze led the Huskies in catches and receiving TDs in 2021 and then broke out as a redshirt sophomore in 2022 with the arrival of OC Ryan Grubb and QB Michael Penix. Odunze tallied 75 catches, 1,145 yards, and seven TDs that year, while ranking top-45 among 286 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He took another giant leap forward this past season, cranking out an FBS-high 1,640 yards and 13 TDs on 92 receptions. Odunze ranked eighth among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route. And he did it all despite suffering a broken rib and punctured lung in his fifth game. Odunze boosted his draft stock with a better-than-expected Combine showing, earning a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at 6’3 and 212 pounds. A polished route runner with excellent ball skills, there are shades of Davante Adams in Odunze’s game. He looks ready to make an immediate impact and should quickly emerge as a high-volume target. Odunze will have trouble piling up targets as a rookie, with WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But Allen's not a good bet to remain in the picture beyond 2024. If this landing spot makes Odunze slip at all in your dynasty rookie draft -- take advantage.

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The Patriots drafted North Carolina QB Drake Maye in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Maye took over as North Carolina’s starter in 2022 and turned in an incredible sophomore season. He racked up 4,321 yards and 38 TDs vs. just seven INTs on a 66.2% completion rate and 8.4 yards per attempt. Maye ranked third among 93 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grades, displaying an impressive combination of aggression and decision-making. His 8.4% big-time throw rate – a PFF stat for downfield, tight-window completions – ranked second among those 93 QBs, while his 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate ranked 22nd. Maye’s wrong production took a step back last year: 3,608 yards and 24 TDs. He dealt with an ankle injury, an OC change, and the departure of go-to WR Josh Downs. But Maye still completed 63.3% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt and ranked seventh among 95 qualifiers in PFF passing grade. He has ideal size at 6’4, 223 pounds with an explosive release and the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Maye is also a plus athlete, throwing well on the run and rushing for 1,147 yards and 16 TDs over the past two seasons. There are shades of Justin Herbert to Maye’s game; he has that type of fantasy ceiling. To reach it, though, the Pats must upgrade the offense around him. For now, Maye’s looking at a WR corps of Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s a chance that Jacoby Brissett is the Week 1 starter. Beyond superflex formats, Maye is off the redraft radar.

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The Giants drafted WR Malik Nabers sixth overall. Nabers is an explosive athlete, confirmed by a 4.35-second 40 time and 42-inch vertical at his Pro Day. Those are 91st- and 97th-percentile marks for his position. A big play waiting to happen both after the catch and going deep, Nabers averaged 15.9 yards per catch for his college career. He flashed as a freshman at LSU and then broke out as a sophomore, leading the team with 72 catches and 1,017 yards. Then came a massive junior season: 89 catches, 1,569 yards, and 14 TDs. Nabers led the FBS in plays of 20+ yards (34) and 30+ yards (17). He also led all 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and ranked third in yards per route. In many ways, his 2023 season was better than Marvin Harrison Jr.’s. Nabers isn’t as polished as Harrison, needing work on his route running and ball skills. But his pure athleticism should create plenty of 2024 fantasy value. And his long-term fantasy ceiling might be higher than Harrison’s. The Giants present opportunity for Nabers to immediately lead the team in targets. The team picking him instead of a QB in Round 1 also bodes well for the 2024 fantasy outlook of QB Daniel Jones, who has been going at the bottom of QB3 territory in early best ball drafting.

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